Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 18.276151 22.094447 26.330194 31.352094 37.117014 43.501055 51.077526
2025-03-30 12.367368 17.214229 23.188185 30.979654 40.750348 52.469901 67.449567
2025-04-06 9.822102 15.235793 22.456108 32.541240 45.985438 62.995140 85.807627
2025-04-13 6.947770 12.024007 19.342777 30.256354 45.651561 66.089120 94.684643
2025-04-20 5.665692 10.749878 18.565052 30.842873 48.940421 73.858939 109.842175
2025-04-27 4.756281 9.828914 18.094775 31.695940 52.523664 82.108394 125.977933
2025-05-04 4.088645 9.152616 17.859155 32.793854 56.445550 90.961550 143.319445
2025-05-11 3.473495 8.425426 17.401902 33.430130 59.635567 98.856216 159.612876
2025-05-18 2.849912 7.531520 16.501949 33.192426 61.371357 104.617712 173.008188
2025-05-25 2.246121 6.521664 15.217814 32.113776 61.602062 108.030196 182.996270
2025-06-01 1.836383 5.828446 14.409584 31.748909 62.918408 113.108827 195.629906
2025-06-08 1.410378 4.967935 13.114730 30.314890 62.255498 114.957898 203.311702
2025-06-15 1.228754 4.718787 13.132017 31.524410 66.557087 125.460317 225.690339
2025-06-22 0.961853 4.144019 12.344687 31.084774 67.932274 131.347413 241.242795
2025-06-29 0.854633 4.008450 12.537026 32.646223 73.069680 143.763565 267.808646
2025-07-06 0.589698 3.229267 11.003498 30.355104 70.747832 143.319028 273.331076
2025-07-13 0.492781 2.999143 10.809667 30.943142 73.982209 152.624149 295.339006
2025-07-20 0.420319 2.829334 10.741421 31.798432 77.790381 163.105186 319.710992
2025-07-27 0.365394 2.706534 10.779500 32.899190 82.157519 174.771565 346.512916
2025-08-03 0.307167 2.533871 10.634117 33.537107 85.605643 184.910981 371.042330
2025-08-10 0.241207 2.273775 10.159484 33.298791 87.188299 191.676120 389.943543
2025-08-17 0.175368 1.951794 9.397340 32.217352 86.865170 194.842436 402.613034
2025-08-24 0.133940 1.737722 8.936883 31.851538 88.049257 200.877618 420.547123